War in Iran, synthetic bacteria's real terror, tale of two Congos, and the Pirahã enigma
The sixth edition of the Sunday Revue.
Dear reader,
Welcome to the sixth edition of the Sunday Revue of the FIELDS NOTES newsletter.
It feels strange to write this on Saturday night, on the hottest day of the year so far, just hours after President Donald Trump announced the U.S. bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran. I was a middle schooler on Long Island on 9/11. Rumors swirled all day about why so many kids were disappearing and why the teachers were acting so strange. I remember being on the bus coming home and asking my friend, Ivan, whether it could be true that someone destroyed the Twin Towers. Neither of us could believe it. I remember waiting for the bus with my dad the morning the U.S. invasion of Iraq began 18 months later and hearing news of the war on the radio. I loved G.I. Joes then, and, having grown up in the heyday of World War II nostalgia and spent the formative last year and a half steeped in jingoism, the idea of the war seemed righteous to me, thrilling. I said so to my dad. He shook his head. Seeing the fear in my father’s eyes, hearing the concern in his voice, I recall feeling confused and ashamed.
It was a scorcher today in Brooklyn. My brother and I went to Midwood, where he voted early in the mayoral primary. We got Georgian ice-cream bars and walked around for a while, then drove up to Flatbush and picked up Trinidadian takeout to bring home to my wife. We went out for an evening walk with the baby. When I got home, one of my group texts was blowing up over a screenshot of Trump’s Truth Social post about the strike.
I don’t know what happens next. So much seems to hinge on how or whether Iran retaliates. Iranian state TV claims the sites the U.S. bombed were long since emptied, casting doubt over the efficacy of this initial American attack. Then again, who knows? Fog of war, and all that. The known details will almost certainly have changed by the time you read this. But war it is – the question now is, how long? And to what extent? The parallels to 2003 seem to offer such a limited guide to this moment. Few deny that WMDs were a real factor this time. Unlike Iraq, Iran’s documented stockpiling of uranium enriched about 20% does, in fact, suggest a real weapons program. It’s difficult to imagine U.S. ground forces invading and occupying Iran. Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, a MAGA isolationist who lauded Trump’s previous restraint on war with Iran, surmised on X that this attack would be “one and done.” The front page headlines in the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Drudge Report, The Los Angeles Times and CNN narrowly described the specific “strikes” or “attack,” at least as of late Saturday. The New York Times, the nation's newspaper of record, framed the story in more history-defining language, blaring five words across the homepage: “U.S. Enters War Against Iran.”
“What does Khamenei do now? He’s long believed if you cave in to pressure it will project weakness and invite more of it. Yet he’s the longest serving dictator in the world, ie not a reckless gambler,” Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, wrote last night. “His survival instincts and defiant instincts are in great tension now.”
While the purpose of this newsletter is not to serve as a news digest for this specific major story, I have tried to include some relevant material in this edition. I hope it’s useful.
Twenty-two years after that morning with my dad, I’m a father. I know why he was scared. To look at your innocent child and recognize you’re incapable of preventing the world they’re inheriting from slipping into greater violence — even as you live in relative safety — is a peculiar feeling of impotence. Like a jellyfish floating in history’s crashing waves, hoping those you love do not end up beached on hot, desiccating sand, helpless to swim in any direction, thanking luck and fearing chance.
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NUMBERS GAME
8 – the number of months roughly 40 employees of the nuclear fuel startup Standard Nuclear toiled in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, without pay to get the company launched. The Wall Street Journal
1,920 – how many megawatts Talen Energy will provide Amazon through a newly tweaked version of its big nuclear deal in Pennsylvania. Ignition
$518 – how much average Georgians’ power bills have risen over the past year ahead of a new public utility commission election. The New York Times
$85.2 million – how much Korean Zinc will invest in the American deep-sea mining startup The Metals Company as part of a new strategic partnership. Press Release
6 – the number of Supreme Court justices that ruled against Texas in a lawsuit challenging the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to permit a waste repository in the Lone Star State. Landmark
95% – how much growth in American electricity demand could be met with existing grid technology. Latitude Media
$650 million – how much money Bill Gates’ reactor startup TerraPower just raised. Press Release
4.9% – the share of European Union’s new car sales that Chinese electric vehicles comprised in April, up from 2.4% a year earlier. The New York Times
60% – how big a downturn solar developers are expecting in the U.S. as a result of Republicans’ repeal of key renewable tax credits. The Financial Times
260 – the metric tonnage of the giant hydrogen-fueled mining trump China just debuted at a trade show. China Hydrogen Bulletin
LINES OF ARGUMENT
On the limitations of destroying Iran’s Fordow enrichment plant, Richard Nephew in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:
Ultimately, Israel chose a high-risk path to try to eliminate the threat from the Iranian nuclear program. Although there was a chance that Iran would try to break out to nuclear weapons possession soon, this was not certain. And a diplomatic approach might have been able to contain this threat too—as it did in 2015.
Having embarked on a military path, Israel either now needs to prevent Iran from breaking out using military means or to coerce Iran into accepting the sorts of intrusive inspections and dismantlement activities it previously refused. This may be theoretically possible; Iran is now under considerable attack and stress, with even calls by President Trump for its “unconditional surrender.” But the odds of a future Iranian breakout—either using Fordow or another site—are not going to go away even with the decimation of Iran’s existing nuclear sites.
On the hype around artificial general intelligence, Margaret Mitchell in The Financial Times:
Some might say it’s snake oil…. the basic premise that the public is being sold something that isn’t actually real and can’t actually meet the needs that they’re being told that it can meet, that does seem to be happening, and that is a problem, yes. This is why we need a more rigorous evaluation approach, better ideas about benchmarking, what it means to know how a system will work, how well it’ll work, in what context, that sort of theme. But as for now, it’s just like vibes, vibes and snake oil, which can get you so far. The placebo effect works relatively well.
On David Wright’s nomination to lead the NRC, Ted Nordhaus and Erik Funkhouser in The Breakthrough Journal:
Bipartisanship has been critical as Congress and now four administrations of both parties have finally gotten serious about creating a globally competitive advanced nuclear industry in the U.S. For the good of the country and the future of nuclear energy, it is essential that this bipartisanship extends to the nomination and confirmation of NRC commissioners and to the work of the commission itself. It is unrealistic to expect every Democratic and Republican member of the Senate to agree on every commission nominee. And Democratic and Republican commissioners will not always agree on every issue. But we hope most will agree that at this critical juncture, Chair David Wright is a great choice to continue to lead at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
On the effects of the war in Iran, Yossi Mekelberg in the Arab News
Iranian citizens who see their country under attack are more likely to rally round the flag. To the regime, meanwhile, the conflict provides a further excuse to take even harsher action against any signs of domestic discontent.
Moreover, regime change commonly suggests a desire among the external forces that attempt to initiate it to install an administration more favorable to them — yet past experiences do not provide much reassurance that this is what would happen; quite the reverse, in fact.
Netanyahu has taken the gamble of his life and in doing so he is also gambling with Israel’s long-term security, and possibly that of the wider region as well.
No one will benefit from a prolonged war that could entangle other regional powers. Diplomacy must step in quickly and play a central role in resolving the conflict or this will be a long and bloody summer.
GRAPHIC DETAIL
NEWS BITES
Scientists are launching an international campaign to stop research to create synthetic bacteria that could cause mass death by mirroring the effects of natural microbes while circumventing immune systems. The Financial Times
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang met in St. Petersburg to discuss ways to “deepen practical cooperation in the energy sector.” Global Times
Trump’s obsession with seizing Greenland eerily follows the plot of Joseph Conrad’s long-forgotten lone sci-fi novel from 1901. Jacobin
Kazakhstan, already a major source of uranium, is finally building its first nuclear power plant, and split the difference between its two giant neighbors by making plans to use Russian and Chinese technology. Haveli
Amid repeated denials of aid to help states prepare for disasters, the Trump administration has laid out plans to “abolish FEMA” in a memo. Bloomberg
The White House has quietly proposed shutting down the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, the little-known agency in charge of investigating industrial accidents. Grist
For all the excitement over perovskite crystals for solar panels, the technology still needs a lot more durability tests to make sure it works. Nature Energy
Elon Musk’s xAI is facing a lawsuit for operating 400 megawatts of gas turbines without permits. TechCrunch
Nuclear-powered cargo ships are starting to gain steam. Bloomberg
WATCHING
Former CIA analyst Michael Shurkin’s analysis on the threat Iran’s military poses to the U.S., including how it could take down American Navy ships.
The history of why there’s a Republic of the Congo and a Democratic Republic of the Congo:
How the language spoken by the Pirahã people of Brazil’s Amazon defies everything linguists know about communication, with no words for colors, no numbers, no past and no future.
LISTENING
Podcasts
The Rachman Review on Israel’s decision to strike Iran.
Open Circuit on the gap between how much smarter grid technology is getting and how stagnant our use of that technology remains.
The Diplomat on how South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s new progressive administration will shake up Northeast Asian geopolitics.
Music
“Bruca Maniguá,” a lush and truly beautiful Cuban song featuring singer Ibrahim Ferrer, a defining song from my adolescence.
“Exitus” an upbeat, atmospheric track by the Asheville, North Carolina-based jazz pianist Okonski.
“Del Dareh Pir Misheh,” a groovy track from the early 1970s by the mustachioed Iranian psychedelic rocker Kourosh Yaghmaei.
Signing off from a muggy Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, where the thunderous roar of fireworks someone set off by the waterfront this evening felt eerie and caused me to look out the window in a panic as I waited for President Trump’s brief speech on the strikes in Iran.
Once again, you have taken large world events and have translated them to personal and poignant observations. Thank you for expressing that which many of us cannot.